Relations between Iran and Russia have deepened significantly since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Iran’s president has promised to sign a strategic cooperation agreement with Russia at the 2024 BRICS summit, which will replace a 2001 treaty. While this agreement will solidify a “comprehensive strategic” partnership, it will stop short of a formal military alliance. Historical examples show that Russia, even in official alliances, often refrains from military involvement, as seen in past conflicts in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

Recent meetings between Russian and Iranian officials have further fueled speculation about military cooperation, including potential air defense system deliveries. However, the relationship between Moscow and Tehran is more pragmatic than ideological, lacking deep trust. Russia’s alliance with Iran is seen as a “marriage of convenience” that could be reconsidered if geopolitical shifts occur, such as a change in U.S. leadership. Economic ties are also limited, with both countries competing for oil markets, and mutual distrust persists despite shared interests in regional conflicts like Syria.

Prof. Andrei Kazantsev-Vaisman opinion piece concludes that while Russia is likely to provide some political and limited military support to Iran, it will not extend to full-scale involvement, particularly in a potential Iran-Israel conflict. Russia’s priority remains leveraging its Middle Eastern influence for better positioning in the Ukraine conflict.

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