The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election will significantly impact Asia, influencing U.S. military presence, regional power dynamics, and Asian economies. With President Joe Biden stepping aside and Vice President Kamala Harris now the Democratic candidate, both Tokyo and Seoul are adjusting their strategies toward Washington. They are actively engaging with both Trump’s and Harris’s teams to discuss critical issues like U.S. troop cost-sharing, arms purchases, intelligence cooperation, and the trilateral security agreement established in 2023 at Camp David. The future of this agreement will depend on the new U.S. president and Japan’s next prime minister.

Key issues include North Korea’s nuclear threat, where Trump’s past efforts for disarmament stalled, and Biden’s administration has made little progress. Harris is expected to follow Biden’s approach, while Trump may seek renewed talks with North Korea. Both Japan and South Korea want disarmament but oppose escalating tensions. Another focus is the financial burden of U.S. military forces in Asia—both countries expect increased pressure under Trump, with more moderate demands under Harris. Regardless, both nations are enhancing their military capabilities.

China remains a complex issue for Japan and South Korea, given its role as both a trade partner and military competitor. Concerns over a potential conflict between China and Taiwan are growing, and both nations are preparing to navigate the delicate balance between U.S. and Chinese interests. They are also adapting to U.S. policies aimed at reducing reliance on China, which will likely continue under either Trump or Harris.

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