Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai’s opinion piece critiques the rigidity of the IDF’s current intelligence assessment process, arguing that it limits analysts’ ability to recognize shifts in adversary behavior, increasing the risk of inaccurate forecasts. Intelligence predictions tend to become fixed once submitted, making analysts hesitant to adjust them, even when conditions change. This can lead to flawed decision-making and even benefit the enemy.

To address this, Shabtai proposes treating assessments as an ongoing process rather than a final product. A structured, transparent, and continuous discussion—both before and after assessments are given to decision-makers—can make intelligence analysis more dynamic and adaptable. Parameters for ongoing review should include verification of validity, contextual evaluation, cross-assessment projections, and the impact of errors.

By fostering continuous engagement with assessments, intelligence analysts can improve their accuracy, avoid cognitive biases, and ensure that decision-making remains responsive to evolving realities.

If you’d like to read Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai’s full opinion piece, click here.